JPMorgan sees bitcoin returning 10% a year, ahead of stocks
J.P. Morgan Asset Management's 2027 outlook gives bitcoin its first long-term forecast: 10% a year, above US stocks and gold, but with 55% volatility.
CryptoGroup Newsroom · · 3 min read
J.P. Morgan Asset Management has put a long-term return forecast on bitcoin for the first time, and the number is higher than for any of the mainstream assets it lists next to it. Its 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions, published on Monday, Oct. 19, model a 10% compound annual return for bitcoin over the next 10 to 15 years, Cointelegraph reported. The same report says the asset is not yet fit to diversify a portfolio.
What the forecast says
The assumptions are a yearly planning tool covering more than 200 asset classes; this is the 31st edition, according to JPMorgan's LTCMA page. The figures below come from the table shared by Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan and cited by several outlets.
| Asset | Compound return a year | Volatility |
|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 10.0% | 55.0% |
| US REITs | 8.2% | 17.3% |
| US small caps | 7.7% | 21.0% |
| US large caps | 7.5% | 18.0% |
| US aggregate bonds | 5.6% | 4.7% |
| Gold | 5.5% | 17.2% |
| US cash | 3.2% | 0.7% |
Cointelegraph adds that JPMorgan's bull case is 16.6% a year and its bear case an annual loss of 11.2%. The inputs included bitcoin's supply growth against money supply, its possible role next to gold and network adoption.
The catch: volatility
JPMorgan describes bitcoin as "a speculative asset and a hedge against monetary easing" and says it does not currently make a case for it as a portfolio diversifier, because its correlations with other markets keep shifting. That is why bitcoin sits in a separate, smaller covariance matrix rather than the firm's main ones. Its arithmetic average return is put at 20.9%, but with 55% volatility, losses eat into compounding, which is why the compound figure is half that.
Why it matters
Large asset managers use these numbers to set strategic allocations, so bitcoin's inclusion is a signal that it is now treated as an asset class worth modelling. Hougan summed up the mood on X: first they ignore you, then they add you to their capital-market assumptions. The bank has also been busy on-chain, this week taking JPM Coin to Ethereum. For investors comparing routes in, our guide to bitcoin ETFs vs buying bitcoin covers the trade-offs, and BlackRock has just filed for a bitcoin ETF with a downside buffer.
Frequently asked questions
Is JPMorgan telling clients to buy bitcoin?
No. The assumptions are long-term modelling inputs. JPMorgan explicitly says it does not currently make a case for bitcoin as a diversifier and keeps it out of its main portfolio matrices.
What return does JPMorgan expect from bitcoin?
A 10% compound annual return over 10 to 15 years in its central case, with a bull case of 16.6% a year and a bear case of an 11.2% annual loss, according to Cointelegraph.
Why is the compound return so much lower than the 20.9% average?
With 55% volatility, big losses shrink the base that later gains build on, so the compound growth rate ends up far below the simple average of yearly returns.
This article is for information only and is not financial advice. Crypto assets are volatile; do your own research. Read our disclaimer
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