VIX jumped 21.5% Friday; bitcoin's calm weekend hints it may fade
Wall Street's fear gauge had its biggest jump since June, but bitcoin held above $80,000 all weekend, and big Friday VIX spikes usually ease by Monday.
CryptoGroup Newsroom · · 2 min read
On this page
Stocks had a rough Friday, but bitcoin spent the weekend trading quietly above $80,000 — and that may say more about Monday than Friday's panic. CoinDesk looked at how Wall Street's fear gauge has behaved after similar spikes. Here are the four things that stood out.
Friday's spike was the biggest since June
The VIX, Cboe's index of how much traders expect the S&P 500 to swing over the next four weeks, rose 21.5% to 19.99 on Friday as the S&P 500 fell 1.09%. It was the largest one-day jump since 5 June, according to TradingView data. The triggers were a slide in AI stocks, record prices for default insurance on AI-linked companies and oil climbing on geopolitical news, including Iran's Revolutionary Guards saying two tankers caught fire after hitting mines in the Strait of Hormuz. Some traders are positioning for more: CNBC reported purchases of 9,200 VIX calls at the 20 strike for 18 November and 12,500 at the 23 strike.
History favours a calmer Monday
By CoinDesk's count, the VIX has jumped 20% or more on a Friday 32 times since January 1990. The following Monday it fell in 25 cases, with a typical drop of 4.5%. A month later it was lower in 25 of the 32 cases, with a median decline of 16%. Seasonality points the same way: the VIX has fallen in November in 25 of the last 36 years.
Bitcoin didn't flinch
Bitcoin is the only big macro asset that trades at weekends, so traders read its moves as an early signal for Monday's open. It stayed within its recent choppy range above $80,000. Volmex's BVIV, a 30-day implied volatility index for bitcoin, slipped 1% on Friday to just under 40% and has barely moved since. For context on recent price action, see our weekend market update.
There is still room for fear to grow
None of this guarantees a quiet start. In seven of the 32 past cases the VIX kept climbing sharply on Monday, including in August 2015, February 2018 and August 2024. Even after Friday the index is below 20, a level it has topped on more than a third of trading days since 1990. Weekend crypto can also turn fast, as the $52 million of chip-stock perp liquidations showed this weekend.
This article is for information only and is not financial advice. Crypto assets are volatile; do your own research. Read our disclaimer
More from Markets
View all →Read next
Aave's USDC and USDT safety stakes shrank $12.4M as rewards rose
Aave Umbrella's Ethereum USDC and USDT backstops fell 9.7% to $116.1M in a month even as their extra reward rates rose. Here is how the system works.
Small caps 41%, bitcoin 7%: CryptoQuant flags an unusual rotation
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost says small- and mid-cap crypto has outpaced bitcoin and large caps since late August, a rare pattern that can reverse fast.
Bitcoin at $10,000 or a $30,000 floor? Weighing McGlone against CryptoQuant's Ju
Bloomberg's Mike McGlone sees a path to $10,000 bitcoin; CryptoQuant's Ki Young Ju says on-chain cost basis puts the floor near $30,000 even if institutions exit.