Bitcoin near $81,500: can it reach $100,000 by year-end? Analysts split

Bitcoin spent Sunday trading around $81,500–$82,000, and the question on desks is whether it can get back above $100,000 before the year is out. Analysts asked by CoinDesk disagree on the timing, mostly because of inflation and the Federal Reserve. The snapshot above shows the latest prices, refreshed each time the site rebuilds.

The bull case: Bitwise

"We believe bitcoin ends the year higher, potentially above $100,000," Bitwise head of research Ryan Rasmussen told CoinDesk. He points to three long-term drivers: buying through ETFs and corporate treasuries, demand for hard assets amid inflation and government debt, and clearer regulation. He still expects volatility around a possible late-October Fed hike and November's US midterm elections.

The cautious case: an $85,000–$95,000 range

Adam Morgan McCarthy of London-based LO:TECH expects bitcoin to trade between $85,000 and $95,000 into year-end. "Macro has gone against Bitcoin all year, with the Fed hiking in September and a December hike priced at roughly 75%," he said. A return above $100,000 would need hike expectations to flip to a pause, helped by cheaper oil and cooler inflation. September consumer prices rose 0.6% month on month, with gasoline more than half of the increase.

ETF money is still leaving

US spot bitcoin ETFs lost $82.4 million on Friday and $228.6 million over the week, after $681.1 million the week before — about $910 million in two weeks, Decrypt reported using SoSoValue data. October is now about $615 million in the red on Decrypt's tracker, and Thursday's dip below $80,000 put bitcoin under the average ETF holder's estimated cost basis near $82,300. Our weekly ETF wrap has the day-by-day figures; for how ETFs differ from holding coins yourself, see bitcoin ETF vs buying bitcoin.

What could flip it

• Leverage is flushed out. Funding rates on perpetual futures are at or below zero, McCarthy said, so there is less fuel for forced selling.
• Short squeeze trigger. "A clean break above $90K for BTC could trigger another round of short covering," said Luca Invernizzi of Nomura's Laser Digital.
• Industry backdrop. Citi says total crypto market value rose from about $2.1 trillion to nearly $3 trillion in the third quarter.
• Flows need to return. CoinShares' James Butterfill notes that inflows have slowed after $11.1 billion since mid-July and says a decisive breakout needs renewed buying.