Bitcoin at $10,000 or a $30,000 floor? Weighing McGlone against CryptoQuant's Ju
Bloomberg's Mike McGlone sees a path to $10,000 bitcoin; CryptoQuant's Ki Young Ju says on-chain cost basis puts the floor near $30,000 even if institutions exit.
CryptoGroup Newsroom · · 2 min read
A cost-basis floor tells you where long-term holders stop selling. It says nothing about who has to sell first.
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Two very different worst cases for bitcoin are doing the rounds this weekend, and both are worth taking seriously for what they leave out. Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone argued on 16 October that a reversal across risk assets could send bitcoin back toward $10,000. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju replied the same day that even if institutions sold everything, "on-chain cost basis still puts the floor near $30k," CryptoSlate reported.
Ju's argument in numbers
Ju's floor rests on MVRV, the ratio of bitcoin's market value to its realised value — what all coins were worth when they last moved. Bitcoin's realised price was about $53,855 on 18 October. At $30,000, MVRV would be roughly 0.56, close to the worst bottoms on record: about 0.55 in January 2015 and 0.46 in November 2011, versus 0.69 in 2018 and 0.78 in 2022. McGlone's $10,000 would mean about 0.19, far outside any precedent. Ju also notes that holders who bought in 2019 have already sat through two 75% drawdowns without capitulating.
The scale of the exit he is stress-testing is big: about $57 billion of net inflows into US spot ETFs and 1.3 million BTC held by 180 public companies, roughly 6.2% of bitcoin's maximum supply. Strategy alone owns 848,250 BTC, about 65% of that corporate total.
What both views miss
Our take: Ju's maths is a useful sanity check on McGlone's tail risk, but a cost-basis floor describes believers, not forced sellers. ETF redemptions turn investor exits straight into spot selling, and a treasury company under financing pressure may sell regardless of conviction. Price is set by the bids available on the day, not by the average historical cost of coins. And $30,000 is hardly comfort — it is about 63% below today's ~$82,000. McGlone's target would be a fall of nearly 88%.
The nearer test is probably in equities: MSCI's new eligibility rules could push Strategy out of global indexes, with one JPMorgan scenario putting passive selling of its shares at about $2.8 billion (our explainer). How bitcoin itself is affected would depend on how Strategy funds itself. For anyone worried about either scenario, sizing and custody matter more than forecasts — see how to store crypto safely.
This article is for information only and is not financial advice. Crypto assets are volatile; do your own research. Read our disclaimer
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