Crypto week ahead: Fed, PCE, ECB, BoJ and $11B BTC expiry

The last week of October packs three central bank decisions, a key US inflation reading and the biggest bitcoin options expiry on Deribit's calendar into four days, BeInCrypto notes. Bitcoin went into the week at about $80,472 on Sunday, well below its early-October peak above $86,000, after a weekend of liquidations we covered in bitcoin's $810M wipeout. Here is the schedule, in order.

Wednesday: the Fed decides (28 October)

The Federal Reserve raised rates in September for the first time since 2023, to a range of 3.75%–4.00%. This time markets expect it to wait: CME FedWatch puts the chance of no change at 90.6%, against a 64.2% chance of a hike priced a month ago. December is another matter, with FedWatch at 68% for a hike, and all 100 economists in a Reuters poll expect one.

Yardeni Research thinks the committee should move now but won't because the US midterm elections are on 3 November. The statement is due at 18:00 UTC and Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference at 18:30 UTC.

Thursday: PCE inflation and the ECB (29 October)

The PCE price index is the inflation gauge the Fed watches most closely. Economists expect a 3.7% annual rate, according to MarketWatch, up from 3.4% in August and far above the 2% target. Third-quarter growth is expected at 3.2%, up from 2.2%. Bond yields are already high: the 10-year Treasury closed near 5% on Friday after reaching 5.33% on 14 October.

The European Central Bank also meets on Thursday. In a Reuters poll, 70 of 73 economists expect it to hold its rate at 2.50%, with most looking for a hike in December.

Friday: Bank of Japan and the $11B options expiry (30 October)

The Bank of Japan decides on Friday. Its 1.25% policy rate is already the highest since 1995, and higher Japanese rates can make the yen-funded carry trade, in which investors borrow cheap yen to buy other assets, less attractive.

At 08:00 UTC the same day, about $10.97 billion of bitcoin options expire on Deribit, roughly 35% of the exchange's open bitcoin contracts. Calls (bets on higher prices) outnumber puts almost two to one. The largest single position, about 19,950 BTC, sits at the $95,000 strike, roughly 18% above Sunday's price, while Deribit data put the "max pain" level, where the most contracts would expire worthless, at $78,000. Options are explained alongside other derivatives in our guide to perpetual futures.

What to watch for crypto

Rate expectations have moved bitcoin before. BeInCrypto points out that it slid from about $82,000 to the low $60,000s in May and June as hopes of cuts faded, yet it rose briefly when the Fed finally hiked in September. A hot PCE number would strengthen the case for a December hike; a cooler one would weaken it. The next meetings are the Fed on 8–9 December, the ECB on 17 December and the BoJ on 18 December. None of this is a forecast, and big expiries can add volatility in either direction. If leverage is part of your trading, read what liquidation in crypto means first.