Bitwise CIO: bitcoin wins whether AI booms, busts or muddles through

Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan told clients that bitcoin could benefit whether artificial intelligence drives a boom, ends in a bust, or merely "muddles along" — a view The Block summarised from his Wednesday note.

Three paths, one conclusion

Hougan sketched what an AI crash might look like: data-centre borrowers default, insurers holding AI-linked bonds come under stress, and the economy slides into a recession reminiscent of 2008. He put the odds of a subsequent government bailout at "nearly 100%" because of AI's geopolitical weight. After an initial sell-off, he expects bitcoin to "rally hard" as the money supply expands. "Because the AI buildout is the biggest infrastructure investment in the history of America, the resulting bailout is the biggest as well," he wrote.

He reaches a similar conclusion if the Fed hikes rates into a recession. If instead the Fed holds and inflation rises, he expects more investors to treat bitcoin as a store of value.

Superabundance and the soft landing

If AI delivers what Hougan calls "superabundance" — soaring productivity and cheaper software, legal work, design and diagnostics — scarce assets such as waterfront land, great art, gold and bitcoin should still appreciate, in his view.

In a third scenario the economy grows about 3% with 4% interest rates, AI-linked debt is serviced, and the soft landing roughly holds. Here bitcoin's existing demand — ETF flows, adviser adoption, corporate and sovereign balance sheets — is enough. "Bitcoin wins by showing up," he wrote.

Our take: a thesis, not a timetable

Hougan's note is a scenario exercise, not a trading call. He himself flags that bitcoin may not rise in a straight line — citing the roughly 50% drop in days during the early-2020 COVID panic — and lists risks that could break the thesis: quantum computing threats, a coordinated government crackdown, or a return to Western fiscal austerity. He calls those outcomes unlikely but "not impossible."

The framing is useful for readers who have spent 2026 watching AI stocks dominate attention while crypto looked like the “contrarian bet” Hougan described in June. Whether you prefer funds or coins, our bitcoin ETF vs buying bitcoin guide walks through the trade-offs without predicting prices.