Bitcoin is now as jumpy as Nvidia, and 8x the euro

Bitcoin's price swings have calmed to roughly the level of Nvidia's, but it is still about eight times as volatile as the euro-dollar exchange rate, according to CoinDesk's calculations of 90-day realized volatility, the annualized standard deviation of daily returns.

The comparison

Bitcoin's own history shows how far it has come. Its 90-day volatility has averaged about 58% since January 2020, peaked at 134% in June 2020 and hit its calmest reading, 27.5%, in September 2025.

Our take

Two things are true at once. First, the "too volatile for a portfolio" argument is weaker than it was: an asset that moves like the largest stock in the world is something professional investors already know how to size. More hedging and risk management, plus steadier ETF ownership, are part of why the swings have narrowed.

Second, the "better money than fiat" argument is not getting much help from these numbers. Most major currency pairs stay below 10% volatility even in rough patches; the euro has held in single digits despite worries over French government debt. Something that can move 38% a year is hard to price rent or salaries in.

It is also a backward-looking measure. Realized volatility tells you how bumpy the last 90 days were, not the next 90. J.P. Morgan's long-term forecast, for instance, still assumes bitcoin volatility of about 55% a year, as we covered in JPMorgan's 2027 bitcoin forecast, and a single day like Thursday's $635 million of ETF outflows shows flows can still turn quickly.

The bottom line

Calmer is not calm. For anyone sizing a position, "Nvidia-like" is a fair working description of bitcoin today: big moves are normal and can come in either direction. This is context, not advice.