Bitcoin tests $81,500 ETF cost basis as Iran talk hits stocks

Bitcoin slid back below $82,000 on Thursday and briefly hit $81,256 on Bitstamp, down 2.9% on the day, as President Donald Trump's comments on Iran and renewed AI-valuation worries pushed US stocks lower, Cointelegraph reported. The move puts BTC right on the estimated $81,500 average cost basis of US spot bitcoin ETF holders. The prices in the snapshot above come from our latest build and may differ from live quotes.

What moved markets

• Trump told reporters the US was "not negotiating" with Iran and that "something" would happen "fairly soon", adding that most people expect it after the Nov. 3 midterm elections.
• At the time of Cointelegraph's report the S&P 500 was down 1.3% and the Nasdaq Composite 2.3%. Mixed reactions to Tesla's results and spending plans added to pressure on tech.
• Oil climbed above $111 a barrel, Decrypt reported, while Treasuries rallied: the US 10-year yield slipped to its lowest level since Sept. 23.

This morning we covered the overnight drop from $84,800; the afternoon session extended that move.

ETF money vs price

The divergence is the story of the week. According to Decrypt's ETF tracker, US spot bitcoin ETFs took in $524.8 million on Wednesday, a three-day streak of about $1.07 billion. That turned October from roughly $615 million of outflows into a net gain of about $460 million. Cumulative net inflows since launch stand at $58.4 billion, with total net assets of $100.8 billion.

Ether ETFs broke a five-day outflow streak with $14.9 million of inflows but are still down about $1.07 billion for the month. Decrypt put ETH near $2,393, down 2.6%, and total crypto market value at $2.84 trillion. Zcash was among the weakest top-10 coins, off 5.6% on the day.

Levels analysts are watching

• $81,300–$84,400: the range Bitfinex Alpha analysts expect until the Federal Reserve's next rate decision on Oct. 28.
• Above $84,400: a breakout would need "sustained ETF demand with stable leverage metrics", they wrote.
• Below $81,300: a close there would raise the risk of a retest of the Oct. 15 low at $79,821.

Prediction-market traders are cautious: on Kalshi, odds of a new all-time high by mid-January 2027 fell to 3%, Cointelegraph said, and Decrypt's Myriad market gave BTC a 20% chance of topping $87,500 in October. These are bets, not forecasts from us.

Why the ETF cost basis matters

The cost basis is the average price at which ETF buyers acquired their shares. When the market trades near it, many holders are roughly break-even, which some traders treat as support. It is a rough guide only: funds report flows, not individual entry prices. To understand the trade-offs of owning a fund versus coins, read bitcoin ETF vs buying bitcoin, and if you are new to the asset itself, start with what is bitcoin.