Kalshi to settle index contracts on S&P Dow Jones values

S&P Dow Jones Indices and Kalshi announced on Monday that Kalshi will become a preferred prediction market licensed to list event contracts tied to S&P DJI benchmarks, with settlement against the index provider's official values, according to the companies' press release.

The deal in brief

• Kalshi becomes a preferred platform for event contracts on S&P DJI indices; forthcoming contracts will settle on official published index values.
• S&P DJI becomes a preferred provider for building indices from Kalshi's market data — for example on economics, politics and sports expectations.
• No launch timeline or financial terms were disclosed.

"S&P DJI is the gold standard for benchmarks," Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour said, calling the move a step toward more retail and institutional demand. S&P DJI chief executive Cathy Clay said it extends the firm's benchmark role "into one of the fastest-growing categories in financial markets."

Our take

The settlement detail matters more than the branding. Kalshi's existing S&P 500 contract terms name Kalshi itself as the source agency for the index level; tying future contracts to S&P DJI's own published values removes a point of dispute and makes the products easier for institutions to compare with futures and options.

The second half of the deal is the bigger long-term bet. An S&P-built index of prediction-market odds would turn crowd forecasts into a packaged data product — something traditional finance can license, chart and, eventually, trade around.

It also fits a clear pattern. Intercontinental Exchange committed up to $2 billion to Polymarket in October 2025, Nasdaq teamed up with Kalshi on market surveillance in August, and on the same day as this deal S&P Global closed its OpenZeppelin acquisition. Sports leagues are signing on too, as the NBA's CFTC agreement showed.

The open question is regulatory: states are still challenging whether event contracts are gambling. Benchmark names add credibility, not legal certainty. For the basics, see our guide to what prediction markets are.