Brazil's companies piled into stablecoins on election day

Brazilian companies used dollar stablecoins as a weekend hedge on Sunday, when traditional markets were shut and the presidential runoff went against expectations. Corporate clients generated 78% of trading at Mercado Bitcoin on election day, and turnover in Tether's USDT rose nearly 800% from the previous Sunday, the exchange told CoinDesk.

The numbers

• Mercado Bitcoin: USDT volume was more than triple the average of the four previous Sundays; bitcoin volume rose 865%. Retail made up just 22% of trading.
• Across 10 venues tracked by Biscoint: USDT against the real rose 150% week on week and USDC 318%.
• Monday: combined USDT and USDC turnover hit R$1.84 billion (about $350 million), 65% above the prior week, and bitcoin trading in reais rose more than ninefold to 1,336 BTC.
• Binance: BTC/BRL volume rose 370% while the global BTC/USDT pair fell 25%.

Why companies moved first

Incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva beat Flávio Bolsonaro, whom prediction markets had priced as a strong favourite; Kalshi put his chances at 84% in a 24 October preview, even though Kalshi and Polymarket are blocked in Brazil. When stock trading reopened on Monday, the Ibovespa fell 14%, its worst day since March 2020, and the dollar gained more than 8% against the real, its biggest one-day rise since 1999.

The pattern is telling. Bitcoin rose 9.4% against the real but slipped 0.2% against USDT, which means the "rally" was really the real falling. Firms were not chasing crypto upside; they were using a 24/7 dollar rail to move treasury cash into dollars before banks and exchanges opened.

Our take

This is the stablecoin use case in its plainest form: a currency shock on a weekend, and a dollar token that trades when nothing else does. It echoes Europe, where USDC now leads euro stablecoin trading, and comes as Brazil tightens oversight of exchanges such as Binance. The open question is whether the move fades once the real stabilises, or whether more Brazilian companies keep part of their treasury in USDT or USDC for good. Stablecoins also carry their own risks, from issuer reserves to frozen addresses, so they are a hedge, not a free lunch.